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DC United vs Nashville SC Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:30

DC United

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nashville SC

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-113.8%0-29.8%0-34.6%0-4+2.3%1 1-08.8%1-112.6%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.0%2-15.7%2-24.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.2%3-11.7%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.5% 34.5% 2.90 -8.7%

Draw 27.4% 28.6% 3.50 -2.5%

Away win 43.1% 43.9% 2.28 -1.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.6% 1.83 -7.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 32.3% 3.10 -6.3%

BTTS 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Home O1.5 32.6% 40.8% 2.45 -20.1%

Away O1.5 43.7% 47.6% 2.10 -8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -28.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1 13.8%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 0–2 9.8%

#5 1–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

DC United0.9

Nashville SC1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DC UNITED · PPG 1.38

NASHVILLE SC · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.51 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

DC United (H) 29.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.7%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.5%

Nashville SC (A) 43.1%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

DC United face Nashville SC in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives DC United a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Nashville SC 43%, so Nashville SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for DC United and 1.4 for Nashville SC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, DC United are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.75 for Nashville SC.

DC United vs Nashville SC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - MLS Predictions