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Connecticut FC vs Orlando City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:00

Connecticut FC

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orlando City II

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.2%0-23.4%0-31.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-05.2%1-18.5%1-26.9%1-33.8%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.3%2-18.6%2-27.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.6%3-15.9%3-24.8%3-32.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-14.8%4+-23.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 28.4% — — —

Over 2.5 66.3% — — —

Over 3.5 44.0% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 55.5% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Connecticut FC2.0

Orlando City II1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.3% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CONNECTICUT FC · PPG 1.60

ORLANDO CITY II · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Connecticut FC (H) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Orlando City II (A) 28.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Connecticut FC face Orlando City II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Connecticut FC a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Orlando City II 28%, so Connecticut FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Connecticut FC and 1.6 for Orlando City II (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Connecticut FC are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.67 for Orlando City II.

Connecticut FC vs Orlando City II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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