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Sporting KC II vs Houston Dynamo FC II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 00:00

Sporting KC II

PPG 0.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Houston Dynamo FC II

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.51 for Away, form 0.70 vs 1.70

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-17.5%0-29.4%0-37.9%0-4+9.0%1 1-03.0%1-17.5%1-29.4%1-37.9%1-4+9.0%2 2-01.5%2-13.8%2-24.7%2-33.9%2-4+4.5%3 3-00.5%3-11.3%3-21.6%3-31.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.5% — — —

Draw 20.9% — — —

Away win 56.6% — — —

Over 2.5 64.0% — — —

Over 3.5 41.3% — — —

BTTS 60.0% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 67.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob60.0%

A 57% / xG 1.0-2.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.4%

#2 0–2 9.4%

#3 1–1 7.5%

#4 1–3 7.9%

#5 0–3 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting KC II1.0

Houston Dynamo FC II2.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING KC II · PPG 0.70

HOUSTON DYNAMO FC II · PPG 1.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.51 for Away, form 0.70 vs 1.70

Win probability 1X2

Sporting KC II (H) 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Houston Dynamo FC II (A) 56.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting KC II face Houston Dynamo FC II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting KC II a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Houston Dynamo FC II 57%, so Houston Dynamo FC II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Sporting KC II and 2.5 for Houston Dynamo FC II (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting KC II are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 1.70 for Houston Dynamo FC II.

Sporting KC II vs Houston Dynamo FC II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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