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Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 23:30

Philadelphia Union

PPG 1.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atlanta United FC

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-17.3%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.0%1-111.7%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.4%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.9%3-15.0%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 59.9% 1.67 -10.5%

Draw 24.7% 24.4% 4.10 +0.8%

Away win 21.7% 22.5% 4.45 -2.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 63.7% 1.57 -20.9%

Over 3.5 28.9% 41.7% 2.40 -18.4%

BTTS 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Home O1.5 49.4% 63.7% 1.57 -22.4%

Away O1.5 20.3% 35.7% 2.80 -25.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -28.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Philadelphia Union1.6

Atlanta United FC0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PHILADELPHIA UNION · PPG 1.12

ATLANTA UNITED FC · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Philadelphia Union (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -10.5%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.8%

Atlanta United FC (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Philadelphia Union face Atlanta United FC in USA - MLS on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Philadelphia Union a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Atlanta United FC 22%, so Philadelphia Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Philadelphia Union and 0.8 for Atlanta United FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Philadelphia Union are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 0.56 for Atlanta United FC.

Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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