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Quindio vs Popayan Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura - 1 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 21:05

Quindio

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Popayan

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-17.2%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.8%1-111.2%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-18.8%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.8%3-14.5%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 20.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 47.1% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.8%

#2 2–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 11.2%

#4 0–0 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quindio1.6

Popayan0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

QUINDIO · PPG 1.80

POPAYAN · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.89 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Quindio (H) 54.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Popayan (A) 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Quindio face Popayan in Colombia - Primera B on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quindio a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Popayan 20%, so Quindio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Quindio and 0.7 for Popayan (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quindio are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.75 for Popayan.

Quindio vs Popayan Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera B Predictions