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Tigres FC vs Leones FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura - 1 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 23:00

Tigres FC

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Leones FC

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-17.6%0-22.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.9%1-111.0%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-18.1%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.7%3-13.9%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 50.0% 2.00 +7.4%

Draw 26.3% 33.3% 3.00 -12.7%

Away win 20.0% 27.0% 3.70 -15.6%

Over 2.5 43.6% 41.7% 2.40 +4.6%

Over 3.5 23.0% 22.2% 4.50 +2.1%

BTTS 47.3% 50.0% 2.00 -5.4%

Home O1.5 46.3% 42.6% 2.35 +8.8%

Away O1.5 19.1% 27.0% 3.70 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.3%

H 54% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.9%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 2–0 13.8%

#4 1–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tigres FC1.5

Leones FC0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TIGRES FC · PPG 1.27

LEONES FC · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tigres FC (H) 53.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +7.4%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.7%

Leones FC (A) 20.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigres FC face Leones FC in Colombia - Primera B on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigres FC a 54% chance, the draw 26% and Leones FC 20%, so Tigres FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tigres FC and 0.6 for Leones FC (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigres FC are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.62 for Leones FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.6%.

Tigres FC vs Leones FC Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Colombia - Primera B Predictions