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Bogota FC vs Union Magdalena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Clausura - 1 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 21:00

Bogota FC

PPG 1.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union Magdalena

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-113.2%0-210.0%0-35.0%0-4+2.7%1 1-08.1%1-112.2%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-03.7%2-15.7%2-24.3%2-32.1%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.2%3-11.7%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 32.3% 3.10 -7.7%

Draw 26.7% 32.3% 3.10 -10.3%

Away win 45.2% 44.4% 2.25 +1.7%

Over 2.5 50.0% 45.5% 2.20 +10.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 33.3% 33.3% 3.00 -0.1%

Away O1.5 49.0% 41.7% 2.40 +17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.3%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 0–2 10.0%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bogota FC0.9

Union Magdalena1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOGOTA FC · PPG 1.09

UNION MAGDALENA · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.59 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Bogota FC (H) 28.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.7%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.3%

Union Magdalena (A) 45.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bogota FC face Union Magdalena in Colombia - Primera B on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bogota FC a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Union Magdalena 45%, so Union Magdalena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Bogota FC and 1.5 for Union Magdalena (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bogota FC are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 2.00 for Union Magdalena. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +17.6%.

Bogota FC vs Union Magdalena Prediction— Colombia - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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