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Budoni vs A. Lodigiani Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Budoni

PPG 1.07 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

A. Lodigiani

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-112.9%0-26.2%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.1%1-113.5%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.3%2-17.1%2-23.4%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.6%3-12.5%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% — — —

Draw 30.8% — — —

Away win 32.4% — — —

Over 2.5 32.5% — — —

Over 3.5 14.4% — — —

BTTS 40.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob40.0%

D 31% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 14.1%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–0 13.5%

#4 0–1 12.9%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Budoni1.0

A. Lodigiani1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.5% · O3.5 PROB 14.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BUDONI · PPG 1.07

A. LODIGIANI · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Budoni (H) 36.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

A. Lodigiani (A) 32.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Budoni face A. Lodigiani in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Budoni a 37% chance, the draw 31% and A. Lodigiani 32%, so Budoni are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Budoni and 1.0 for A. Lodigiani (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Budoni are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.93 for A. Lodigiani. This match finished 1-0.

Budoni vs A. Lodigiani Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

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