Today / Peru - Segunda División / Santos vs Comerciantes

Santos vs Comerciantes Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 20:15

Santos

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Comerciantes

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.2%0-115.6%0-26.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.1%1-113.1%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.8%2-15.5%2-22.2%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.9%3-11.5%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% — — —

Draw 32.4% — — —

Away win 29.3% — — —

Over 2.5 33.6% — — —

Over 3.5 17.1% — — —

BTTS 45.4% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob45.4%

D 32% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.2%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.1%

#4 0–1 15.6%

#5 2–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos0.8

Comerciantes0.8

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS · PPG 2.00

COMERCIANTES · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.03, combined xG 1.65 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santos (H) 38.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Comerciantes (A) 29.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos face Comerciantes in Peru - Segunda División on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos a 38% chance, the draw 32% and Comerciantes 29%, so Santos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Santos and 0.8 for Comerciantes (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Comerciantes.

Santos vs Comerciantes Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Segunda División Predictions