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U. San Martin vs Carlos A. Mannucci Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 16:00

U. San Martin

PPG 0.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Carlos A. Mannucci

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-19.5%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.5%1-112.8%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-18.7%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-13.9%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 27.9% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 38.5% — — —

Away O1.5 34.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. San Martin1.4

Carlos A. Mannucci1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

U. SAN MARTIN · PPG 0.33

CARLOS A. MANNUCCI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.33, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

U. San Martin (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Carlos A. Mannucci (A) 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

U. San Martin face Carlos A. Mannucci in Peru - Segunda División on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. San Martin a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Carlos A. Mannucci 28%, so U. San Martin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for U. San Martin and 1.0 for Carlos A. Mannucci (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. San Martin are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Carlos A. Mannucci.

U. San Martin vs Carlos A. Mannucci Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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