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Deportivo Llacuabamba vs U. San Martin Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Llacuabamba

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

U. San Martin

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.37 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-14.7%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.9%1-19.0%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.3%2-18.7%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.9%3-15.6%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-14.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 21.8% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 48.8% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 86%

Score Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.8%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.3%

#2 1–0 15.9%

#3 1–1 9.0%

#4 3–0 9.9%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Llacuabamba1.9

U. San Martin0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO LLACUABAMBA · PPG 3.00

U. SAN MARTIN · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.37 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Llacuabamba (H) 56.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

U. San Martin (A) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Llacuabamba face U. San Martin in Peru - Segunda División on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Llacuabamba a 56% chance, the draw 22% and U. San Martin 22%, so Deportivo Llacuabamba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Deportivo Llacuabamba and 0.6 for U. San Martin (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Llacuabamba are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.40 for U. San Martin.

Deportivo Llacuabamba vs U. San Martin Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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