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Cesar Vallejo vs Union Comercio Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 20:00

Cesar Vallejo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Union Comercio

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.5%0-124.0%0-210.9%0-33.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.2%1-110.1%1-24.6%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-02.4%2-12.1%2-21.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.3%3-10.3%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.1% — — —

Draw 34.6% — — —

Away win 41.3% — — —

Over 2.5 33.3% — — —

Over 3.5 13.0% — — —

BTTS 46.4% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 24.7% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.4%

A 41% / xG 0.4-0.9 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.5%

#2 0–1 24.0%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 0–2 10.9%

#5 1–0 11.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cesar Vallejo0.4

Union Comercio0.9

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.3% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CESAR VALLEJO · PPG 2.00

UNION COMERCIO · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.48, combined xG 1.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cesar Vallejo (H) 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Union Comercio (A) 41.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cesar Vallejo face Union Comercio in Peru - Segunda División on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cesar Vallejo a 24% chance, the draw 35% and Union Comercio 41%, so Union Comercio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for Cesar Vallejo and 0.9 for Union Comercio (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cesar Vallejo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.50 for Union Comercio.

Cesar Vallejo vs Union Comercio Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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