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Comerciantes vs Alianza Universidad Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 20:15

Comerciantes

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Alianza Universidad

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-17.8%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.4%1-112.0%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.2%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.7%3-14.7%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 20.7% — — —

Over 2.5 46.8% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 11.1%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comerciantes1.5

Alianza Universidad0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COMERCIANTES · PPG 2.50

ALIANZA UNIVERSIDAD · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Comerciantes (H) 52.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alianza Universidad (A) 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Comerciantes face Alianza Universidad in Peru - Segunda División on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comerciantes a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Alianza Universidad 21%, so Comerciantes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Comerciantes and 0.8 for Alianza Universidad (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comerciantes are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Alianza Universidad.

Comerciantes vs Alianza Universidad Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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