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Comerciantes vs Alianza Universidad Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 11 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 20:15

Comerciantes

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Alianza Universidad

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWL

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-18.4%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.4%1-112.2%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-18.9%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.4%3-14.3%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 57.1% 1.75 -10.1%

Draw 27.2% 29.4% 3.40 -4.5%

Away win 21.4% 25.0% 4.00 -8.6%

Over 2.5 46.8% 45.5% 2.20 +3.0%

Over 3.5 26.4% 25.8% 3.88 +1.5%

BTTS 48.5% 51.0% 1.96 -4.9%

Home O1.5 46.3% 49.8% 2.01 -6.9%

Away O1.5 20.1% 24.1% 4.15 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -28.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0✓ 15.4%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Comerciantes1.5

Alianza Universidad0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

COMERCIANTES · PPG 2.50

ALIANZA UNIVERSIDAD · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Comerciantes (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -10.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.5%

Alianza Universidad (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Comerciantes face Alianza Universidad in Peru - Segunda División on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Comerciantes a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Alianza Universidad 21%, so Comerciantes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Comerciantes and 0.8 for Alianza Universidad (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Comerciantes are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Alianza Universidad. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Comerciantes vs Alianza Universidad Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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