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Alumni Los Hornos vs Control Orientado Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 17:00

Alumni Los Hornos

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Control Orientado

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-114.9%0-28.4%0-33.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.9%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.3%2-16.0%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.6%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% — — —

Draw 28.6% — — —

Away win 34.4% — — —

Over 2.5 46.8% — — —

Over 3.5 27.2% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.5%

D 29% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 0–1 14.9%

#4 1–0 11.9%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alumni Los Hornos0.9

Control Orientado1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ALUMNI LOS HORNOS · PPG 1.00

CONTROL ORIENTADO · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.23, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Alumni Los Hornos (H) 36.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Control Orientado (A) 34.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Alumni Los Hornos face Control Orientado in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alumni Los Hornos a 37% chance, the draw 29% and Control Orientado 34%, so Alumni Los Hornos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Alumni Los Hornos and 1.1 for Control Orientado (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alumni Los Hornos are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Control Orientado.

Alumni Los Hornos vs Control Orientado Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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