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Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 15:00

Sarpsborg 08 FF

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ham-Kam

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-15.5%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.6%1-110.4%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.9%3-16.2%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 57.8% 1.73 -1.4%

Draw 22.5% 25.6% 3.90 -7.3%

Away win 20.4% 23.8% 4.20 -8.6%

Over 2.5 56.3% 63.7% 1.57 -11.6%

Over 3.5 34.8% 41.7% 2.40 -16.5%

BTTS 54.4% 65.4% 1.53 -16.8%

Home O1.5 55.7% 61.7% 1.62 -9.8%

Away O1.5 24.7% 37.0% 2.70 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.4%

H 57% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarpsborg 08 FF1.9

Ham-Kam0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SARPSBORG 08 FF · PPG 1.83

HAM-KAM · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sarpsborg 08 FF (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -1.4%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.3%

Ham-Kam (A) 20.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarpsborg 08 FF face Ham-Kam in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Ham-Kam 20%, so Sarpsborg 08 FF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 0.9 for Ham-Kam (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.50 for Ham-Kam.

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

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