Today / Norway - Eliteserien / Aalesund vs Viking

Aalesund vs Viking Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 17:15

Aalesund

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Viking

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-16.5%0-27.3%0-35.5%0-4+5.2%1 1-03.8%1-18.4%1-29.5%1-37.1%1-4+6.7%2 2-02.4%2-15.5%2-26.1%2-34.6%2-4+4.3%3 3-01.0%3-12.4%3-22.6%3-32.0%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.9% 16.7% 6.00 +33.2%

Draw 20.8% 21.7% 4.60 -2.6%

Away win 53.4% 69.0% 1.45 -22.6%

Over 2.5 63.7% 71.4% 1.40 -10.8%

Over 3.5 42.1% 50.0% 2.00 -15.8%

BTTS 62.7% 67.6% 1.48 -7.2%

Home O1.5 38.5% 35.1% 2.85 +9.7%

Away O1.5 67.0% 73.5% 1.36 -8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -14.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob62.7%

A 53% / xG 1.3-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.3%

#4 1–3 7.1%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalesund1.3

Viking2.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AALESUND · PPG 1.00

VIKING · PPG 2.14

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.95 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Aalesund (H) 25.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +33.2%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -2.6%

Viking (A) 53.4%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalesund face Viking in Norway - Eliteserien on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalesund a 26% chance, the draw 21% and Viking 53%, so Viking are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Aalesund and 2.2 for Viking (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalesund are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.14 for Viking. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +35.9%.

Aalesund vs Viking Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - Eliteserien Predictions