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Bunyodkor vs Pakhtakor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Regular Season - 14 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 15:00

Bunyodkor

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Pakhtakor

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.71 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-112.5%0-210.2%0-35.6%0-4+3.3%1 1-07.1%1-111.7%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.1%2 2-03.3%2-15.5%2-24.5%2-32.5%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.0%3-11.7%3-21.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.6% — — —

Draw 25.4% — — —

Away win 52.0% — — —

Over 2.5 51.3% — — —

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 33.4% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 13.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.3%

A 52% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 0–1 12.5%

#3 0–2 10.2%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bunyodkor0.9

Pakhtakor1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BUNYODKOR · PPG 1.00

PAKHTAKOR · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.71 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Bunyodkor (H) 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Pakhtakor (A) 52.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bunyodkor face Pakhtakor in Uzbekistan - Super League on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bunyodkor a 23% chance, the draw 25% and Pakhtakor 52%, so Pakhtakor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Bunyodkor and 1.6 for Pakhtakor (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bunyodkor are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.60 for Pakhtakor.

Bunyodkor vs Pakhtakor Prediction— Uzbekistan - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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