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Poggibonsi vs Tau Altopascio Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Poggibonsi

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Tau Altopascio

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-113.3%0-29.0%0-34.0%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.6%1-112.9%1-28.7%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-04.6%2-16.2%2-24.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.5%3-12.0%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.8% — — —

Draw 27.6% — — —

Away win 45.6% — — —

Over 2.5 40.8% — — —

Over 3.5 20.3% — — —

BTTS 45.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob45.8%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.3%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 0–0✓ 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 0–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Poggibonsi1.0

Tau Altopascio1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

POGGIBONSI · PPG 1.00

TAU ALTOPASCIO · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Poggibonsi (H) 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tau Altopascio (A) 45.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Poggibonsi face Tau Altopascio in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Poggibonsi a 27% chance, the draw 28% and Tau Altopascio 46%, so Tau Altopascio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Poggibonsi and 1.3 for Tau Altopascio (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Poggibonsi are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.33 for Tau Altopascio. This match finished 0-0.

Poggibonsi vs Tau Altopascio Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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