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Ghiviborgo vs Seravezza Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Group E - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Ghiviborgo

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Seravezza

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-18.3%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.8%1-112.3%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.2%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.4%3-14.6%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% — — —

Draw 26.0% — — —

Away win 26.5% — — —

Over 2.5 46.4% — — —

Over 3.5 24.9% — — —

BTTS 50.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.2%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0✓ 11.8%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ghiviborgo1.5

Seravezza1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.4% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GHIVIBORGO · PPG 1.67

SERAVEZZA · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Ghiviborgo (H) 47.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Seravezza (A) 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ghiviborgo face Seravezza in Italy - Serie D - Girone E on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ghiviborgo a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Seravezza 27%, so Ghiviborgo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ghiviborgo and 1.0 for Seravezza (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ghiviborgo are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.07 for Seravezza. This match finished 1-0.

Ghiviborgo vs Seravezza Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone E

Match Preview & Prediction

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