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Linero vs Österlen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 15 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 11:00

Linero

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Österlen

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.0%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.7%1-18.9%1-24.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.1%3-17.3%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-16.7%4+-23.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 52.4% 1.91 +7.0%

Draw 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Away win 21.8% 31.3% 3.20 -18.1%

Over 2.5 63.6% 70.4% 1.42 -9.7%

Over 3.5 40.3% 50.0% 2.00 -19.4%

BTTS 60.3% 73.5% 1.36 -18.0%

Home O1.5 60.1% 63.7% 1.57 -5.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 48.8% 2.05 -32.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 32%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -18.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.3%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Linero2.2

Österlen1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LINERO · PPG 2.14

ÖSTERLEN · PPG 1.29

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.18 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Linero (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +7.0%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

Österlen (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Linero face Österlen in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Linero a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Österlen 22%, so Linero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Linero and 1.0 for Österlen (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Linero are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 1.29 for Österlen. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +10.1%.

Linero vs Österlen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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