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Karlshamn vs Räppe Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 15 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 17:00

Karlshamn

PPG 0.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Räppe

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-19.4%0-25.7%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.4%1-112.6%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.0%2-18.5%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.1%3-13.8%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 42.6% 2.35 +6.5%

Draw 26.0% 29.0% 3.45 -6.2%

Away win 28.6% 38.5% 2.60 -15.4%

Over 2.5 53.4% 61.7% 1.62 -13.5%

Over 3.5 31.1% 40.0% 2.50 -22.3%

BTTS 55.4% 67.6% 1.48 -18.0%

Home O1.5 38.3% 51.3% 1.95 -25.3%

Away O1.5 36.5% 47.6% 2.10 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -29.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlshamn1.3

Räppe1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSHAMN · PPG 0.43

RÄPPE · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Karlshamn (H) 45.3%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +6.5%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -6.2%

Räppe (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -15.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlshamn face Räppe in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlshamn a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Räppe 29%, so Karlshamn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Karlshamn and 1.2 for Räppe (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlshamn are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 0.83 for Räppe.

Karlshamn vs Räppe Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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