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Staffanstorp Un vs Vaxjo Norra Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 11 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 14:00

Staffanstorp Un

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vaxjo Norra

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-18.2%0-27.5%0-34.5%0-4+3.1%1 1-05.8%1-110.5%1-29.5%1-35.8%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.7%2-16.7%2-26.1%2-33.7%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.6%3-12.9%3-22.6%3-31.6%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.9% 33.3% 3.00 -1.3%

Draw 24.2% 28.2% 3.55 -8.5%

Away win 42.9% 48.8% 2.05 -12.1%

Over 2.5 62.0% 66.7% 1.50 -7.0%

Over 3.5 39.0% 45.5% 2.20 -14.2%

BTTS 61.4% 71.4% 1.40 -14.0%

Home O1.5 46.9% 47.6% 2.10 -1.5%

Away O1.5 44.6% 58.8% 1.70 -24.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -27.8%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.4%

A 43% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Staffanstorp Un1.3

Vaxjo Norra1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STAFFANSTORP UN · PPG 1.40

VAXJO NORRA · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Staffanstorp Un (H) 32.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.3%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.5%

Vaxjo Norra (A) 42.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -12.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Staffanstorp Un face Vaxjo Norra in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Staffanstorp Un a 33% chance, the draw 24% and Vaxjo Norra 43%, so Vaxjo Norra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Staffanstorp Un and 1.8 for Vaxjo Norra (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Staffanstorp Un are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.20 for Vaxjo Norra. This match finished 2-2.

Staffanstorp Un vs Vaxjo Norra Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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