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Nosaby vs Karlskrona Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 11 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 14:00

Nosaby

PPG 1.80 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Karlskrona

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-19.2%0-26.7%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.3%1-112.0%1-28.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.4%2-17.9%2-25.7%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.4%3-13.4%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.8% 37.7% 2.65 -7.8%

Draw 24.2% 26.3% 3.80 -4.8%

Away win 41.1% 45.5% 2.20 -9.6%

Over 2.5 54.1% 66.7% 1.50 -18.9%

Over 3.5 34.0% 43.5% 2.30 -21.8%

BTTS 55.4% 69.4% 1.44 -20.2%

Home O1.5 46.9% 50.0% 2.00 -6.2%

Away O1.5 36.9% 55.6% 1.80 -33.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -27.8%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.4%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 2–1 7.9%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nosaby1.3

Karlskrona1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NOSABY · PPG 1.80

KARLSKRONA · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Nosaby (H) 34.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -7.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.8%

Karlskrona (A) 41.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nosaby face Karlskrona in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nosaby a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Karlskrona 41%, so Karlskrona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nosaby and 1.4 for Karlskrona (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nosaby are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.40 for Karlskrona. This match finished 3-1.

Nosaby vs Karlskrona Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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