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Karlshamn vs Lilla Torg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 11 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 13:00

Karlshamn

PPG 0.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lilla Torg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-112.1%0-27.2%0-32.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.1%1-113.2%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.1%2-17.3%2-24.3%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.2%3-12.7%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.1% 47.6% 2.10 -32.6%

Draw 27.6% 29.0% 3.45 -2.9%

Away win 40.3% 33.3% 3.00 +20.9%

Over 2.5 48.7% 60.6% 1.65 -19.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 38.5% 2.60 -16.2%

BTTS 52.0% 65.4% 1.53 -20.4%

Home O1.5 41.4% 54.1% 1.85 -23.4%

Away O1.5 32.0% 42.6% 2.35 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -27.8%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.0%

A 40% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlshamn1.1

Lilla Torg1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSHAMN · PPG 0.00

LILLA TORG · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Karlshamn (H) 32.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -32.6%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.9%

Lilla Torg (A) 40.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +20.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlshamn face Lilla Torg in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlshamn a 32% chance, the draw 28% and Lilla Torg 40%, so Lilla Torg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Karlshamn and 1.2 for Lilla Torg (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlshamn are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Lilla Torg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.9%. This match finished 2-0.

Karlshamn vs Lilla Torg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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