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Karlskrona vs Lilla Torg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 10 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 12:00

Karlskrona

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Lilla Torg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-15.4%0-21.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.4%1-19.7%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-18.8%2-22.6%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.9%3-15.3%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-13.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 73.5% 1.36 -23.6%

Draw 22.7% 21.1% 4.75 +4.7%

Away win 21.1% 15.4% 6.50 +22.3%

Over 2.5 48.5% 71.4% 1.40 -32.1%

Over 3.5 27.9% 50.0% 2.00 -26.5%

BTTS 47.2% 63.7% 1.57 -25.9%

Home O1.5 53.8% 76.9% 1.30 -30.1%

Away O1.5 11.9% 31.3% 3.20 -37.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -27.8%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.6 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.4%

#2 2–0 14.8%

#3 1–1✓ 9.7%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 3–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlskrona1.8

Lilla Torg0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSKRONA · PPG 2.00

LILLA TORG · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=56.2%

Win probability 1X2

Karlskrona (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -23.6%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +4.7%

Lilla Torg (A) 21.1%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +22.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlskrona face Lilla Torg in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlskrona a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Lilla Torg 21%, so Karlskrona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Karlskrona and 0.6 for Lilla Torg (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlskrona are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Lilla Torg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Karlskrona vs Lilla Torg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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