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Karlskrona vs Nosaby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 15 ·Thursday, July 30, 2026, 17:00

Karlskrona

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nosaby

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-13.1%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.9%1-17.6%1-24.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.6%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.1%3-17.8%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-18.7%4+-24.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.6% 56.5% 1.77 +7.3%

Draw 19.8% 26.7% 3.75 -15.4%

Away win 19.6% 26.7% 3.75 -15.9%

Over 2.5 64.4% 63.7% 1.57 +1.1%

Over 3.5 42.8% 41.7% 2.40 +2.7%

BTTS 60.0% 66.7% 1.50 -10.0%

Home O1.5 63.0% 61.7% 1.62 +2.1%

Away O1.5 36.5% 39.2% 2.55 -6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -29.0%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.0%

H 61% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlskrona2.5

Nosaby1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSKRONA · PPG 2.00

NOSABY · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.38 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Karlskrona (H) 60.6%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV +7.3%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -15.4%

Nosaby (A) 19.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlskrona face Nosaby in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Thursday, July 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlskrona a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Nosaby 20%, so Karlskrona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Karlskrona and 1.1 for Nosaby (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlskrona are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.17 for Nosaby. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.8%.

Karlskrona vs Nosaby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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