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Oskarshamns vs Osterlen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 11 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 12:00

Oskarshamns

PPG 2.40 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Osterlen

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.7%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.5%1-18.6%1-24.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.8%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.4%3-17.4%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-17.3%4+-23.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.9% 58.8% 1.70 -1.6%

Draw 21.6% 26.7% 3.75 -11.4%

Away win 20.5% 24.4% 4.10 -9.6%

Over 2.5 64.1% 65.4% 1.53 -1.9%

Over 3.5 39.4% 43.5% 2.30 -9.4%

BTTS 60.6% 67.6% 1.48 -10.3%

Home O1.5 68.8% 63.7% 1.57 +8.0%

Away O1.5 30.7% 39.2% 2.55 -21.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -27.8%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.6%

H 58% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oskarshamns2.3

Osterlen1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

OSKARSHAMNS · PPG 2.40

OSTERLEN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=57.9%

Win probability 1X2

Oskarshamns (H) 57.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -1.6%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.4%

Osterlen (A) 20.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oskarshamns face Osterlen in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oskarshamns a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Osterlen 21%, so Oskarshamns are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Oskarshamns and 1.0 for Osterlen (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oskarshamns are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Osterlen. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Oskarshamns vs Osterlen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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