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Hwaseong vs Daegu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 10:30

Hwaseong

PPG 1.69 · HOME

UPCOMING

Daegu FC

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+10.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.6%0-24.9%0-32.8%0-4+1.8%1 1-05.4%1-19.5%1-28.3%1-34.8%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.6%2-18.0%2-27.0%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.6%3-14.5%3-24.0%3-32.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.8%4+-22.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% 31.3% 3.20 +19.0%

Draw 22.1% 28.6% 3.50 -13.6%

Away win 40.7% 48.8% 2.05 -16.6%

Over 2.5 64.0% 57.8% 1.73 +10.7%

Over 3.5 42.8% 35.7% 2.80 +19.8%

BTTS 63.5% 63.7% 1.57 -0.3%

Home O1.5 49.4% 39.2% 2.55 +26.0%

Away O1.5 48.0% 52.4% 1.91 -8.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 26%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

A 41% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–2 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hwaseong1.7

Daegu FC1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HWASEONG · PPG 1.69

DAEGU FC · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hwaseong (H) 37.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +19.0%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.6%

Daegu FC (A) 40.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hwaseong face Daegu FC in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hwaseong a 37% chance, the draw 22% and Daegu FC 41%, so Daegu FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hwaseong and 1.7 for Daegu FC (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hwaseong are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.62 for Daegu FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +26.0%.

Hwaseong vs Daegu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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