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Asan Mugunghwa vs Seongnam FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 10:30

Asan Mugunghwa

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Seongnam FC

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-19.4%0-25.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.0%1-112.8%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-18.7%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.7%3-13.9%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 39.2% 2.55 +16.0%

Draw 26.6% 30.8% 3.25 -8.1%

Away win 27.9% 39.2% 2.55 -17.3%

Over 2.5 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Over 3.5 28.9% 29.0% 3.45 -0.2%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 38.3% 40.8% 2.45 -6.2%

Away O1.5 36.4% 40.8% 2.45 -10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 26%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Asan Mugunghwa1.4

Seongnam FC1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ASAN MUGUNGHWA · PPG 1.67

SEONGNAM FC · PPG 1.12

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 2.43 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Asan Mugunghwa (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +16.0%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.1%

Seongnam FC (A) 27.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Asan Mugunghwa face Seongnam FC in South Korea - K League 2 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Asan Mugunghwa a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Seongnam FC 28%, so Asan Mugunghwa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Asan Mugunghwa and 1.1 for Seongnam FC (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Asan Mugunghwa are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.12 for Seongnam FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.3%.

Asan Mugunghwa vs Seongnam FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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