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Gimpo Citizen vs Yongin City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 10:30

Gimpo Citizen

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Yongin City

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-110.1%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.9%1-113.0%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-18.4%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.6%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 54.1% 1.85 -23.6%

Draw 27.2% 29.9% 3.35 -5.3%

Away win 31.6% 25.3% 3.95 +24.8%

Over 2.5 50.0% 48.8% 2.05 +2.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +3.7%

BTTS 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Home O1.5 38.5% 48.8% 2.05 -21.1%

Away O1.5 36.4% 28.2% 3.55 +29.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -34.0%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 41% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimpo Citizen1.3

Yongin City1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMPO CITIZEN · PPG 0.67

YONGIN CITY · PPG 1.29

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimpo Citizen (H) 41.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -23.6%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.3%

Yongin City (A) 31.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimpo Citizen face Yongin City in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimpo Citizen a 41% chance, the draw 27% and Yongin City 32%, so Gimpo Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gimpo Citizen and 1.1 for Yongin City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimpo Citizen are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.29 for Yongin City. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +29.2%.

Gimpo Citizen vs Yongin City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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