Today / South Korea - K League 2 / Paju Citizen vs Ansan Greeners

Paju Citizen vs Ansan Greeners Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 10:30

Paju Citizen

PPG 0.88 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ansan Greeners

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 53.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-18.2%0-24.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.5%1-112.3%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.2%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.7%3-14.6%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 54.6% 1.83 -3.2%

Draw 24.1% 28.6% 3.50 -9.4%

Away win 23.0% 25.6% 3.90 -6.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.6% 1.83 -1.4%

Over 3.5 32.8% 32.3% 3.10 +1.7%

BTTS 52.3% 58.8% 1.70 -11.1%

Home O1.5 46.3% 54.1% 1.85 -14.3%

Away O1.5 29.2% 32.3% 3.10 -5.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -34.0%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 53% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 8.4%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paju Citizen1.5

Ansan Greeners1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PAJU CITIZEN · PPG 0.88

ANSAN GREENERS · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Paju Citizen (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -3.2%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.4%

Ansan Greeners (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paju Citizen face Ansan Greeners in South Korea - K League 2 on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paju Citizen a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Ansan Greeners 23%, so Paju Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Paju Citizen and 1.0 for Ansan Greeners (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paju Citizen are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.17 for Ansan Greeners. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.1%.

Paju Citizen vs Ansan Greeners Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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