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Vigasio vs Brian Lignano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Vigasio

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Brian Lignano

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.4%0-25.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.4%1-112.1%1-27.8%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-18.7%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.2%3-14.2%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 33.8% — — —

Over 2.5 51.3% — — —

Over 3.5 29.1% — — —

BTTS 55.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.2%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 9.4%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 0–1 8.4%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vigasio1.4

Brian Lignano1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VIGASIO · PPG 1.47

BRIAN LIGNANO · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Vigasio (H) 40.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Brian Lignano (A) 33.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vigasio face Brian Lignano in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vigasio a 41% chance, the draw 26% and Brian Lignano 34%, so Vigasio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vigasio and 1.3 for Brian Lignano (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vigasio are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.40 for Brian Lignano. This match finished 1-3.

Vigasio vs Brian Lignano Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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