Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone C / Mestre vs Legnago Salus

Mestre vs Legnago Salus Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Mestre

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Legnago Salus

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Caution: Away form (2.33) strong but model favors Home (P=44.6%)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.9%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.7%1-112.6%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-18.9%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.2%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% — — —

Draw 26.6% — — —

Away win 28.8% — — —

Over 2.5 45.5% — — —

Over 3.5 24.1% — — —

BTTS 50.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.0%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 0–1 8.9%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mestre1.4

Legnago Salus1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MESTRE · PPG 1.67

LEGNAGO SALUS · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (2.33) strong but model favors Home (P=44.6%)

Win probability 1X2

Mestre (H) 44.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Legnago Salus (A) 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mestre face Legnago Salus in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mestre a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Legnago Salus 29%, so Mestre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Mestre and 1.1 for Legnago Salus (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mestre are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 2.33 for Legnago Salus. This match finished 1-1.

Mestre vs Legnago Salus Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone C Predictions