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Conegliano vs Luparense Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Group C - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Conegliano

PPG 1.93 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Luparense

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-18.3%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.5%1-111.3%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.3%2-17.7%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-13.5%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% — — —

Draw 28.0% — — —

Away win 15.8% — — —

Over 2.5 30.9% — — —

Over 3.5 13.3% — — —

BTTS 32.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 78%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob32.8%

H 56% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.5%

#2 0–0 14.3%

#3 2–0 13.3%

#4 1–1✓ 11.3%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Conegliano1.4

Luparense0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.9% · O3.5 PROB 13.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CONEGLIANO · PPG 1.93

LUPARENSE · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Conegliano (H) 56.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Luparense (A) 15.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Conegliano face Luparense in Italy - Serie D - Girone C on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Conegliano a 56% chance, the draw 28% and Luparense 16%, so Conegliano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Conegliano and 0.6 for Luparense (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Conegliano are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.27 for Luparense. This match finished 1-1.

Conegliano vs Luparense Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone C

Match Preview & Prediction

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