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Osterlen vs Staffanstorp Un Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:00

Osterlen

PPG 0.75 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Staffanstorp Un

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.5%0-25.6%0-32.8%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.5%1-111.2%1-28.4%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.4%2-26.3%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.8%3-14.2%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 55.6% 1.80 -35.6%

Draw 24.9% 26.3% 3.80 -3.2%

Away win 39.3% 28.6% 3.50 +37.5%

Over 2.5 60.1% 67.6% 1.48 -11.1%

Over 3.5 36.2% 45.5% 2.20 -20.4%

BTTS 61.0% 69.4% 1.44 -12.2%

Home O1.5 44.1% 63.7% 1.57 -30.8%

Away O1.5 44.1% 43.5% 2.30 +1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -27.8%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.0%

A 39% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osterlen1.5

Staffanstorp Un1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

OSTERLEN · PPG 0.75

STAFFANSTORP UN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Osterlen (H) 35.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -35.6%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.2%

Staffanstorp Un (A) 39.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +37.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osterlen face Staffanstorp Un in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osterlen a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Staffanstorp Un 39%, so Staffanstorp Un are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Osterlen and 1.5 for Staffanstorp Un (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osterlen are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.00 for Staffanstorp Un. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Osterlen vs Staffanstorp Un Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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