Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone A / Sestri Levante vs Asti

Sestri Levante vs Asti Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Sestri Levante

PPG 1.36 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Asti

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-14.5%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.8%1-19.0%1-22.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-19.0%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.8%3-16.0%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-14.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.2% — — —

Draw 19.5% — — —

Away win 10.3% — — —

Over 2.5 48.2% — — —

Over 3.5 26.5% — — —

BTTS 39.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob39.4%

H 70% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.8%

#2 2–0 14.7%

#3 3–0 9.8%

#4 1–1 9.0%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sestri Levante2.0

Asti0.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.2% · O3.5 PROB 26.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SESTRI LEVANTE · PPG 1.36

ASTI · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Sestri Levante (H) 70.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Asti (A) 10.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sestri Levante face Asti in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sestri Levante a 70% chance, the draw 20% and Asti 10%, so Sestri Levante are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sestri Levante and 0.6 for Asti (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sestri Levante are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.07 for Asti. This match finished 1-2.

Sestri Levante vs Asti Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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