Today / Kazakhstan - 1. Division / Shakhter Karagandy vs Arys

Shakhter Karagandy vs Arys Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Regular Season - 15 ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 13:00

Shakhter Karagandy

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Arys

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +3.51 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-10.5%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.6%1-12.0%1-20.4%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.8%2-13.9%2-20.7%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.9%3-15.1%3-20.9%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-037.6%4+-113.8%4+-22.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% — — —

Draw 17.3% — — —

Away win 9.5% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 49.6% — — —

BTTS 46.7% — — —

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 11.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob46.7%

H 73% / xG 3.9-0.4 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 13.9%

#2 4–0 13.5%

#3 2–0 10.8%

#4 5–0 10.5%

#5 1–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shakhter Karagandy3.9

Arys0.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 49.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAKHTER KARAGANDY · PPG 3.00

ARYS · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.51 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Shakhter Karagandy (H) 73.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Arys (A) 9.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shakhter Karagandy face Arys in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shakhter Karagandy a 73% chance, the draw 17% and Arys 10%, so Shakhter Karagandy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Shakhter Karagandy and 0.4 for Arys (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shakhter Karagandy are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Arys.

Shakhter Karagandy vs Arys Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Kazakhstan - 1. Division Predictions