Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone A / Saluzzo vs Celle Varazze

Saluzzo vs Celle Varazze Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Saluzzo

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Celle Varazze

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.1%0-22.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.0%1-19.0%1-25.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.4%3-17.1%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-16.5%4+-23.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.5% — — —

Draw 19.9% — — —

Away win 18.5% — — —

Over 2.5 64.1% — — —

Over 3.5 42.0% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 62% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.8%

#2 1–1 9.0%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Saluzzo2.2

Celle Varazze1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SALUZZO · PPG 1.33

CELLE VARAZZE · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Saluzzo (H) 61.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Celle Varazze (A) 18.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Saluzzo face Celle Varazze in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Saluzzo a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Celle Varazze 19%, so Saluzzo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Saluzzo and 1.1 for Celle Varazze (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Saluzzo are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.93 for Celle Varazze. This match finished 0-1.

Saluzzo vs Celle Varazze Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie D - Girone A Predictions