Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland / IFK Trelleborg vs Oskarshamns

IFK Trelleborg vs Oskarshamns Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

IFK Trelleborg

PPG 2.20 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Oskarshamns

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.7%0-24.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.3%1-110.2%1-27.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.9%3-15.5%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.7%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 43.1% 2.32 -0.5%

Draw 22.0% 29.4% 3.40 -15.1%

Away win 35.1% 41.2% 2.43 -14.7%

Over 2.5 64.1% 69.0% 1.45 -7.1%

Over 3.5 39.9% 47.2% 2.12 -15.4%

BTTS 61.0% — — —

Home O1.5 53.7% — — —

Away O1.5 41.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 29%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -27.8%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.0%

H 43% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Trelleborg1.8

Oskarshamns1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK TRELLEBORG · PPG 2.20

OSKARSHAMNS · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.20) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

IFK Trelleborg (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -0.5%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.1%

Oskarshamns (A) 35.1%

ODDS 2.43 · IMPLIED 41.2% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Trelleborg face Oskarshamns in Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Trelleborg a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Oskarshamns 35%, so IFK Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for IFK Trelleborg and 1.4 for Oskarshamns (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Trelleborg are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.75 for Oskarshamns. This match finished 1-1.

IFK Trelleborg vs Oskarshamns Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predictions