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Akademiya Ontustik vs Astana II Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Regular Season - 15 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 12:00

Akademiya Ontustik

PPG 1.62 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Astana II

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-16.0%0-23.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.6%1-110.8%1-26.1%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.8%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.3%3-15.9%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-14.0%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 24.6% — — —

Over 2.5 60.7% — — —

Over 3.5 37.5% — — —

BTTS 56.3% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.3%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Akademiya Ontustik1.8

Astana II1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AKADEMIYA ONTUSTIK · PPG 1.62

ASTANA II · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Akademiya Ontustik (H) 50.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Astana II (A) 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Akademiya Ontustik face Astana II in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Akademiya Ontustik a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Astana II 25%, so Akademiya Ontustik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Akademiya Ontustik and 1.1 for Astana II (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Akademiya Ontustik are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.00 for Astana II. This match finished 2-1.

Akademiya Ontustik vs Astana II Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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