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Jaiyq vs Khan Tengri Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Regular Season - 15 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 13:00

Jaiyq

PPG 1.71 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Khan Tengri

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-18.1%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-112.1%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.4%3-14.5%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% — — —

Draw 25.1% — — —

Away win 20.3% — — —

Over 2.5 50.0% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 55% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 0–0 9.7%

#4 2–0✓ 10.9%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaiyq1.5

Khan Tengri0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JAIYQ · PPG 1.71

KHAN TENGRI · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jaiyq (H) 54.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Khan Tengri (A) 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaiyq face Khan Tengri in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaiyq a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Khan Tengri 20%, so Jaiyq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Jaiyq and 0.8 for Khan Tengri (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaiyq are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.57 for Khan Tengri. This match finished 2-0.

Jaiyq vs Khan Tengri Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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