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Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Ekibastuz Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Regular Season - 15 ·Thursday, July 23, 2026, 13:00

Kaspij Aktau 2

PPG 1.67 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ekibastuz

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-15.9%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.6%1-110.8%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.9%3-16.0%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.1%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% — — —

Draw 23.1% — — —

Away win 23.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.7% — — —

Over 3.5 37.5% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 54.3% — — —

Away O1.5 32.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kaspij Aktau 21.8

Ekibastuz1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KASPIJ AKTAU 2 · PPG 1.67

EKIBASTUZ · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kaspij Aktau 2 (H) 53.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ekibastuz (A) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kaspij Aktau 2 face Ekibastuz in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kaspij Aktau 2 a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Ekibastuz 23%, so Kaspij Aktau 2 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Kaspij Aktau 2 and 1.0 for Ekibastuz (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kaspij Aktau 2 are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.25 for Ekibastuz. This match finished 3-0.

Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Ekibastuz Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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