Citta di Varese vs Derthona Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Italy - Serie D - Girone A Group A - 32 Stadio Franco Ossola· Varese Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00

Citta di Varese PPG 1.47

1-0 HIT CS2

Derthona PPG 1.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Citta di Varese face Derthona in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Citta di Varese a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Derthona 25%, so Citta di Varese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Citta di Varese and 1.1 for Derthona (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Citta di Varese are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.87 for Derthona. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.1%

Odds: — EV: —

Draw 24.5%

Odds: — EV: —

Away 24.5%

Odds: — EV: —

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.1% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 29.0% Odds: — —

BTTS 53.0% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✔

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Citta di Varese

1.65

Derthona

1.07

Model SuggestionBTTS  MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.47) vs Away GOOD (1.87)