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Citta di Varese vs Derthona Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Group A - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Citta di Varese

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Derthona

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.47) vs Away GOOD (1.87)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.0%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.9%1-111.6%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.6%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.0%3-15.3%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% — — —

Draw 24.5% — — —

Away win 24.5% — — —

Over 2.5 51.1% — — —

Over 3.5 29.0% — — —

BTTS 53.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 53.7%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0✓ 10.9%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Citta di Varese1.7

Derthona1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CITTA DI VARESE · PPG 1.47

DERTHONA · PPG 1.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.47) vs Away GOOD (1.87)

Win probability 1X2

Citta di Varese (H) 51.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Derthona (A) 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Citta di Varese face Derthona in Italy - Serie D - Girone A on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Citta di Varese a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Derthona 25%, so Citta di Varese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Citta di Varese and 1.1 for Derthona (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Citta di Varese are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.87 for Derthona. This match finished 1-0.

Citta di Varese vs Derthona Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone A

Match Preview & Prediction

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