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Žalgiris II vs Minija Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 17 ·Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 16:00

Žalgiris II

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Minija

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-110.6%0-210.2%0-36.5%0-4+4.9%1 1-05.4%1-110.3%1-29.9%1-36.4%1-4+4.8%2 2-02.6%2-15.0%2-24.8%2-33.1%2-4+2.3%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 8.7% 11.50 +132.5%

Draw 21.8% 15.4% 6.50 +25.0%

Away win 50.3% 87.0% 1.15 -42.2%

Over 2.5 60.7% 75.2% 1.33 -19.3%

Over 3.5 37.5% 54.3% 1.84 -31.0%

BTTS 55.4% 53.2% 1.88 +4.2%

Home O1.5 35.0% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.6%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob55.4%

A 50% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 0–2 10.2%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Žalgiris II1.0

Minija1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ŽALGIRIS II · PPG 1.75

MINIJA · PPG 2.38

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.95 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Žalgiris II (H) 27.9%

ODDS 11.50 · IMPLIED 8.7% EV +132.5%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +25.0%

Minija (A) 50.3%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -42.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Žalgiris II face Minija in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Žalgiris II a 28% chance, the draw 22% and Minija 50%, so Minija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Žalgiris II and 1.9 for Minija (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Žalgiris II are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.38 for Minija. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +4.2%.

Žalgiris II vs Minija Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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