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Concepción vs O'Higgins Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 16 ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 00:30

Concepción

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

O'Higgins

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-18.5%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.0%1-112.3%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-18.9%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.5%3-14.3%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 43.9% 2.28 +4.2%

Draw 26.5% 30.3% 3.30 -7.5%

Away win 27.8% 34.7% 2.88 -12.0%

Over 2.5 52.5% 51.8% 1.93 +1.3%

Over 3.5 31.0% 29.9% 3.35 +3.9%

BTTS 55.4% 58.8% 1.70 -5.8%

Home O1.5 46.3% 44.4% 2.25 +4.2%

Away O1.5 36.9% 37.7% 2.65 -2.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 15.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.9%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Concepción1.4

O'Higgins1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CONCEPCIÓN · PPG 1.14

O'HIGGINS · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Concepción (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +4.2%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.5%

O'Higgins (A) 27.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Concepción face O'Higgins in Chile - Primera División on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Concepción a 46% chance, the draw 27% and O'Higgins 28%, so Concepción are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Concepción and 1.2 for O'Higgins (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Concepción are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.14 for O'Higgins. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.6%.

Concepción vs O'Higgins Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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