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Oldenburg vs St. Pauli B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 30 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Oldenburg

PPG 1.93 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

St. Pauli B

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 82.6% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a clear edge.

+14.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.2%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.8%1-14.2%1-22.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-06.4%2-17.1%2-24.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.2%3-18.0%3-24.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-014.4%4+-116.0%4+-28.9%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 80.2% 69.0% 1.45 +16.3%

Draw 11.4% 23.1% 4.33 -50.6%

Away win 8.5% 17.9% 5.60 -52.4%

Over 2.5 82.6% 72.5% 1.38 +14.0%

Over 3.5 65.6% 51.3% 1.95 +27.9%

BTTS 64.8% 69.0% 1.45 -6.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 83%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob64.8%

H 80% / xG 3.4-1.1 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 3–0 7.2%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 4–1✓ 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oldenburg3.4

St. Pauli B1.1

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.6% · O3.5 PROB 65.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OLDENBURG · PPG 1.93

ST. PAULI B · PPG 0.85

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.93), Away POOR (0.85) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Oldenburg (H) 80.2%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV +16.3%

Draw 11.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -50.6%

St. Pauli B (A) 8.5%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -52.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oldenburg face St. Pauli B in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oldenburg a 80% chance, the draw 11% and St. Pauli B 9%, so Oldenburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Oldenburg and 1.1 for St. Pauli B (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oldenburg are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.85 for St. Pauli B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +27.9%. This match finished 4-1.

Oldenburg vs St. Pauli B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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