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Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 22 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 21:00

Gimnasia Y Tiro

PPG 1.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-19.3%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.6%1-112.8%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-18.8%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.1%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 52.6% 1.90 -12.6%

Draw 26.6% 33.3% 3.00 -12.1%

Away win 27.4% 23.8% 4.20 +9.0%

Over 2.5 50.0% 41.7% 2.40 +20.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 52.3% 48.8% 2.05 +7.2%

Home O1.5 39.4% 44.4% 2.25 -11.3%

Away O1.5 30.6% 25.0% 4.00 +22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia Y Tiro1.4

Deportivo Maipu1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA Y TIRO · PPG 1.55

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 0.90

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia Y Tiro (H) 46.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -12.6%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -12.1%

Deportivo Maipu (A) 27.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia Y Tiro face Deportivo Maipu in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia Y Tiro a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Maipu 27%, so Gimnasia Y Tiro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gimnasia Y Tiro and 1.0 for Deportivo Maipu (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia Y Tiro are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.90 for Deportivo Maipu. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +62.4%.

Gimnasia Y Tiro vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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