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Episentr vs Karpaty Lviv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:30

Episentr

PPG 0.91 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Karpaty Lviv

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-110.8%0-28.6%0-34.5%0-4+2.6%1 1-07.5%1-111.9%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.1%2-16.5%2-25.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.5%3-12.4%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.4% 32.3% 3.10 -18.2%

Draw 25.0% 31.3% 3.20 -20.0%

Away win 48.6% 45.5% 2.20 +6.9%

Over 2.5 50.3% 50.0% 2.00 +0.6%

Over 3.5 28.3% 28.2% 3.55 +0.5%

BTTS 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob53.1%

A 49% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 0–1 10.8%

#3 1–2 9.4%

#4 0–2 8.6%

#5 1–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Episentr1.1

Karpaty Lviv1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

EPISENTR · PPG 0.91

KARPATY LVIV · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

56%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.64) vs Home POOR (0.91)

Win probability 1X2

Episentr (H) 26.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.2%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -20.0%

Karpaty Lviv (A) 48.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Episentr face Karpaty Lviv in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Episentr a 26% chance, the draw 25% and Karpaty Lviv 49%, so Karpaty Lviv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Episentr and 1.6 for Karpaty Lviv (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Episentr are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.64 for Karpaty Lviv. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Episentr vs Karpaty Lviv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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