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Canberra Juventus vs Monaro Panthers Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 06:30

Canberra Juventus

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Monaro Panthers

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.4% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-12.5%0-23.4%0-33.0%0-4+3.9%1 1-01.9%1-15.0%1-26.7%1-36.0%1-4+7.7%2 2-01.9%2-15.0%2-26.7%2-36.0%2-4+7.6%3 3-01.2%3-13.3%3-24.4%3-33.9%3-4+5.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.6%4+-23.4%4+-33.1%4+-4+3.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 23.1% 4.33 +14.0%

Draw 19.4% 21.1% 4.75 -4.7%

Away win 52.1% 67.6% 1.48 -22.9%

Over 2.5 75.4% 80.0% 1.25 -5.8%

Over 3.5 53.4% 62.9% 1.59 -15.1%

BTTS 69.5% 76.9% 1.30 -9.7%

Home O1.5 55.7% 47.4% 2.11 +17.5%

Away O1.5 67.0% 80.0% 1.25 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 77%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 29%

ROI -10.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob69.5%

A 52% / xG 2.0-2.7 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 6.7%

#2 2–2 6.7%

#3 1–3 6.0%

#4 2–3 6.0%

#5 1–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Canberra Juventus2.0

Monaro Panthers2.7

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CANBERRA JUVENTUS · PPG 1.71

MONARO PANTHERS · PPG 1.88

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.70 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Canberra Juventus (H) 28.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +14.0%

Draw 19.4%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -4.7%

Monaro Panthers (A) 52.1%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Canberra Juventus face Monaro Panthers in Australia - NPL Capital Territory on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Canberra Juventus a 28% chance, the draw 19% and Monaro Panthers 52%, so Monaro Panthers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Canberra Juventus and 2.7 for Monaro Panthers (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Canberra Juventus are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.88 for Monaro Panthers. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +60.1%.

Canberra Juventus vs Monaro Panthers Prediction— Australia - NPL Capital Territory

Match Preview & Prediction

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