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Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake Prediction— USA - MLS

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 02:30

Portland Timbers

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Real Salt Lake

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.6%0-22.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-05.2%1-18.0%1-26.2%1-33.2%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.7%2-18.8%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-04.1%3-16.5%3-25.0%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.9%4+-24.6%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 41.7% 2.40 +27.2%

Draw 21.7% 25.6% 3.90 -9.2%

Away win 25.3% 39.7% 2.52 -21.8%

Over 2.5 67.0% 69.4% 1.44 -3.5%

Over 3.5 44.5% 47.6% 2.10 -6.6%

BTTS 64.5% 72.5% 1.38 -11.0%

Home O1.5 61.8% 55.6% 1.80 +11.2%

Away O1.5 49.0% 54.1% 1.85 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -7.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.5%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland Timbers2.2

Real Salt Lake1.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND TIMBERS · PPG 1.57

REAL SALT LAKE · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.64 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Portland Timbers (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +27.2%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.2%

Real Salt Lake (A) 25.3%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland Timbers face Real Salt Lake in USA - MLS on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Timbers a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Real Salt Lake 25%, so Portland Timbers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Portland Timbers and 1.6 for Real Salt Lake (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Timbers are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.71 for Real Salt Lake. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +25.3%.

Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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